Bill Gates acaba de revelar 12 razones inspiradoras para tener mucha esperanza en 2021

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Bill Gates había predicho en gran medida la pandemia ya en 2015. Como resultado, he seguido sus declaraciones y predicciones posteriores con especial cuidado.

No, Gates no es una persona perfecta y no es la única fuente de verdad. Pero después de gastar tanto tiempo y dinero luchando contra la pandemia, me moría por leer su última publicación de blog donde reveló los «avances» que él cree que «harán que 2021 sea mejor que 2020».

Eres libre de elegir, pero creo que hizo un buen trabajo resumiendo los desarrollos positivos y entregándolos de una manera esperanzadora sin ser polaco.

Aquí están las 12 conclusiones esperanzadoras que encontré en su artículo. Encontrarás el artículo completo con 4.000 palabras. PuertasNotas.

1. La velocidad del desarrollo de la vacuna.

Para empezar, Gates dice que vale la pena agradecer la velocidad a la que las compañías farmacéuticas han desarrollado y probado no solo una, sino dos vacunas.

«Los seres humanos han progresado más en cualquier enfermedad en un año que el mundo en el COVID-19 este año», dijo, y agregó que la fabricación de las vacunas suele tardar una década. «Esta vez, se hicieron varias vacunas en menos de un año».

2. La gente ha aceptado en gran medida el uso de máscaras y el distanciamiento social.

Sé que no nos hemos acercado al 100 por ciento del uso de máscaras y el compromiso de distanciamiento social, pero Gates dice que la gente en general eligió seguir estas prácticas.

Es especialmente esperanzador que estas medidas sigan «frenando la propagación del virus y salvando vidas» mientras se distribuyen las vacunas, escribió.

3. Estamos a punto de lograr un impacto global.

La pandemia era mundial y, cuando se lanzaron las vacunas, Gates dijo que esperaba que podamos seguir atacando el problema a nivel mundial.

Por supuesto, existen algunos desafíos importantes, muchos de los cuales Gates mencionó en el resto de su artículo. Pero, en general, era optimista.

4. La promesa de más vacunas.

A principios de este año, Gates habló de su plan para invertir miles de millones en el desarrollo de capacidades de fabricación de vacunas para siete posibles vacunas, asumiendo que solo dos funcionarían.

Ahora, sin embargo, Gates dice que el desarrollo de dos buenas vacunas sugiere que otras también tendrán éxito.

«Con tantas empresas adoptando enfoques diferentes, había muchas más posibilidades de que algunas resultaran seguras y eficaces. Ya hay dos y posiblemente más», escribió.

5. Creación de riesgo financiero compartido.

Una de las principales razones por las que el desarrollo de vacunas suele ser tan lento es el riesgo financiero. Pero Gates dijo que estaba inspirado por el hecho de que tantas empresas comparten el riesgo.

«En algunos casos fue un gobierno nacional como Estados Unidos o Alemania», escribió. «En otros países ha sido un grupo llamado CEPI, la Coalición para la Innovación en la Preparación de Epidemias, financiado por nuestra fundación y varios socios gubernamentales y filantrópicos».

6. Acuerdos de segunda fuente.

Desde la vacuna hasta el desarrollo, nos enfrentamos al próximo gran desafío: la fabricación. De hecho, la capacidad mundial de producción de vacunas debe duplicarse en un solo año para satisfacer la demanda.

Una de las razones por las que Gates vio esto como una fuente de esperanza y gratitud es el desarrollo de «acuerdos de segunda fuente» que unen a las compañías farmacéuticas más allá de las fronteras.

«Es difícil exagerar lo inusuales que son estos arreglos de segunda mano», escribió Gates. «Imagínese si Ford ofreciera una de sus fábricas a Honda para construir Accords».

7. Logística de distribución de vacunas.

Hacer las 5 a 10 mil millones de dosis necesarias es bastante difícil, pero ya estamos viendo que lo siguiente que debe abordarse después de eso es la distribución.

«Este es un obstáculo logístico y financiero», escribió. Para ser honesto, su artículo sugiere que este es el mayor desafío que queda, pero Gates expresa la esperanza de que los expertos se enteren y que los países ricos ayuden a los más pobres.

8. La derrota del escepticismo.

Incluso antes del Covid-19, había personas que en general eran escépticas con respecto a las vacunas y, por supuesto, es un desafío superar lo suficiente de ese escepticismo.

«No ayuda que haya falsas teorías de conspiración sobre las vacunas, incluidas algunas en las que Melinda y yo estamos involucrados», escribió, y agregó su esperanza de que «líderes creíbles, especialmente políticos, líderes comunitarios, científicos y médicos generales» sean capaz de superar los problemas de persuasión.

9. El auge de los tratamientos.

Gates citó los avances en la terapia como una de las cosas por las que está realmente agradecido. Incluyendo: esteroides como dexametasona y anticuerpos monoclonales.

Al igual que con la vacuna, los próximos desafíos son la producción y distribución.

«Para abordar esto, nuestra fundación ha firmado un acuerdo de segunda fuente mediante el cual Fujifilm Diosynth producirá un anticuerpo desarrollado por Eli Lilly», escribió. «Estas dosis están destinadas a países de ingresos bajos y medianos y se clasificarán en consecuencia …»

10. Probar el progreso.

En general, Gates pregonó el desarrollo de pruebas Covid menos invasivas.

«Con un poco de suerte, los días en que el COVID-19 llenó la garganta pronto terminarán», escribió.

El gran desafío restante en los EE. UU. Es obtener los resultados de las pruebas lo suficientemente rápido como para ser de alguna utilidad. Pero hay avances.

«Hubo buenas noticias en ese frente la semana pasada cuando la FDA aprobó el primer diagnóstico que las personas pueden usar en casa sin enviar una muestra al laboratorio. Funciona de manera muy similar a una prueba de embarazo casera», escribió.

11. Menos devastador en los países en desarrollo.

«Una cosa en la que me alegro de haberme equivocado, al menos espero estar equivocado, es mi temor de que el COVID-19 pueda extenderse a los países de bajos ingresos», escribió Gates.

De hecho, las tasas de casos y muertes en el África subsahariana están en realidad por debajo de las de EE. UU. Y Europa.

Sin embargo, esta buena noticia se ve atenuada por el hecho de que el cambio a Covid en África «interrumpió los esfuerzos para detectar y tratar el VIH / SIDA, la malaria, la tuberculosis y otras enfermedades. Como resultado, COVID-19 se mantuvo bajo en la lista de amenazas para la salud, sin embargo». otros problemas volvieron «.

12. En general, la colaboración mundial fue buena.

Aquí está el truco: es una pandemia global, y Gates dice que el mundo, en general, se unió para combatirla. Y esa es una buena señal para otros desafíos globales.

«Esta colaboración global es una de las razones por las que veo promesas para el próximo año, y no solo la promesa de controlar la pandemia», escribió. «Creo que el mundo también tiene la oportunidad de dar pasos concretos en relación con uno de los otros grandes desafíos de nuestro tiempo: el cambio climático».

Las opiniones expresadas por los columnistas de Inc.com aquí son las suyas propias, no las de Inc.com.

Here are the 12 hopeful takeways I found in his article. You can find the whole 4,000-word article on GatesNotes.

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1.     The sheer speed of vaccine development.

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Starting off, Gates says the sheer speed with which pharmaceutical companies have created and tested not one, but two vaccines, is worth being grateful for.

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"Humans have never made more progress on any disease in a year than the world did on COVID-19 this year," he said, adding that usually, vaccine creation can take a decade. "This time, multiple vaccines were created in less than one year."

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2.    Largely, people have accepted the use of masks and social distancing.

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I know we haven't reached anything near 100 percent use of masks and commitment to social distancing, but Gates says that by and large people bought into these practices. 

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It's especially hopeful that these measures will continue to "slow the spread of the virus and save lives" while vaccines are being distributed, he wrote.

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3.    We're about to hit global impact.

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The pandemic was global, and as vaccines rollout, Gates said he's hopeful that we'll be able to continue attack the problem on a worldwide basis, too. 

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There are some big challenges, of course, many of which Gates referred to in the rest of his article. But by and large, he expressed optimism.

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4.    The promise of more vaccines.

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Earlier this year, Gates talked about his plan to invest billions to develop vaccine manufacturing capacity for seven potential vaccines, while expecting only two of them would work out.

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Now, however, Gates says that the development of two good vaccines suggests others will be successful too. 

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"With so many companies pursuing different approaches, there was a much better chance that some would prove to be safe and effective. There are two already and more may be coming," he wrote.

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5.    The emergence of shared financial risk.

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One of the big reasons why vaccine development is usually so slow is the financial risk involved. But Gates said he takes inspiration from the fact that so many entities stepped up to share the risk.

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"In some cases, it was a national government, such as the U.S. or Germany," he wrote. "In others it was the group called CEPI, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, which is funded by our foundation and several government and philanthropic partners."

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6.    Second-source agreements.

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From vaccine to development we hit the next big challenge: manufacturing. In fact, the worldwide vaccine production capability will basically have to double in a single year to meet demand. 

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One of the reasons Gates said he sees reason for hope and gratitude here is the development of "second source agreements," which pairs pharmaceutical companies across borders.

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"It's hard to overstate how unusual these second-source agreements are," Gates wrote. "Imagine Ford offering up one of its factories for Honda to build Accords."

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7.    Vaccine distribution logistics.

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Producing the 5 billion to 10 billion needed doses is difficult enough, but we're already seeing that the next thing to tackle after that is distribution. 

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"That's both a logistical hurdle and a financial one," he wrote. To  be honest, his article suggests this is the biggest challenge remaining, but Gates expresses hope that experts will figure it out, and that rich countries will help poorer ones.

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8.    The defeat of skepticism.

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Even before Covid-19, there were people who were skeptical of vaccines in general, and overcoming enough of that skepticism is of course a challenge.

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"It doesn't help that there are false conspiracy theories about vaccines, including some that involve Melinda and me," he wrote, adding his hope that "credible leaders--politicians, community leaders, scientists, and family doctors especially" will be able to overcome the persuasion problems.

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9.    The rise of treatments.

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Gates cited progress in therapuetics as one of the things he's truly grateful for. Among them: steroids like dexamethasone and monoclonal antibodies.

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Much like the vaccine, the next challenges are production and distribution.

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"To deal with that, our foundation underwrote a second-source agreement in which Fujifilm Diosynth will produce an antibody developed by Eli Lilly," he wrote. "These doses will be earmarked for low- and middle-income countries and priced accordingly..."

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10.    Testing progress.

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Overall, Gates trumpeted the development of less-invasive Covid tests. 

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"With any luck, the days of the jam-a-stick-to-the-back-of-your-throat COVID-19 test will soon be over," he wrote.

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The big remaining challenge in the U.S. has to do with getting test results fast enough to be of use. But, there's progress.

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"Just last week, there was some good news on this front when the FDA approved the first diagnostic that people can use at home, without sending a sample to a lab. It works a lot like an at-home pregnancy test," he wrote.

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11.    Less devastating in developing countries.

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"One thing I'm happy to have been wrong about--at least, I hope I was wrong--is my fear that COVID-19 would run rampant in low-income countries," Gates wrote.

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In fact, the case and death rates in sub-Saharan Africa are actually below the U.S. and Europe.

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This good news is tempered, however, by the fact that shifting to focus on Covid in Africa "disrupted efforts to detect and treat HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and other diseases. As a result, COVID-19 stayed low on the list of health threats, but other problems came roaring back."

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12.    Overall, global cooperation has been good.

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Here's the kicker: it's a global pandemic, and Gates says that by and large, the world has come together ot fight it. And that portends well for other global challenges.

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"This global cooperation is one reason why I see promise in the year ahead--and not only the promise of getting the pandemic under control," he wrote. "I believe the world also has a chance to take concrete steps on one of the other great challenges of our time: climate change."  

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